If my FB timeline is anything to go by, Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister on Friday, with about 450 seats. The Conservatives will be a rump Party with, perhaps, 100 seats. A Corbyn landslide, then.
If the polls are anything to go by, it will be tighter than that, maybe even to the extent of a hung Parliament.
Whereas you could place a bet on a Labour victory at 13/2. Put your money down now!
Theresa May has had a horrible campaign. She has squandered the possibility of a 100+ majority in a series of gaffes, all of her own making. The Iron Lady Mk11 reputation is in tatters. Margaret Thatcher never made an election campaign about Margaret Thatcher. It was always about Conservatives vs Labour.
That has been Mrs May’s biggest error. And all other errors have come from that one fundamental mistake.
But still, if you listen carefully to voters interviewed on the radio or on television, here’s what you will have heard.
The people talking
1. Half of UKIP’s votes from 2015 will go back to the Conservatives. That’s 2m votes. Maybe 1m will stay with UKIP. The remaining million will go either to Labour or will register as protest votes.
2. Up in Scotland, the only way is down for the SNP (remember in 2015, out of 59 seats available, they won 56). Even in Glasgow, lifelong Labour voters are saying they will vote Conservative for the first time, because:
a) they’re sick and tired of talk about a second referendum (there are more important matters Nicola Sturgeon should be attending to); but
b) they can’t take Jeremy Corbyn seriously as a potential Prime Minister. Here, you also have to take into account that decades of Labour representation – at council and Parliament level – have brought no noticeable improvement for the poorest. (This is the poor talking; not me).
3. The much-vaunted youth vote is not enough to make a difference. Even demographically, if they all registered to vote, and they all voted Labour, there aren’t enough of them.
But, surprise number one: 45% of newly registered (young) voters said they would vote Conservative when asked, so not all young people are wide-eyed idealists, as older people widely believe.
And, surprise number two: the majority of them are in safe Labour seats, where their votes will simply give the local MP a bigger majority, but make no difference to the national result.
The ‘Shy Tory’ conundrum
Conservatives know they will be slapped down pretty quickly if they put their heads above the parapet. This is why FB friends of mine, who I know are Conservative voters, don’t join in the conversation.
Which leaves the debate wide open for those on the left to hear their opinions ricocheting around the echo chamber of social media.
But the ‘debate’, such as it is, only goes to prove how wise the shy Tories are to keep their heads down. Theresa May is ‘a cunt’, ‘a wicked woman’, ‘a bitch’. All Tories are ‘scum’, who only vote for themselves, their pocket book, and their hugely well-paid jobs.
Only 10% of wage earners are paid over £60k. But 40% earn between £17k and £31k. So the left has a hugely corrupted vision of who might be a Conservative voter. Either that, or they don’t mind viciously offending half their fellow citizens in a propaganda effort to win.
In any event, we’ll see. I still stick to my belief – back when the election was called – that Theresa May will command a majority of around 50. More than that, and she will have triumphed, despite her clog-dance of a campaign. Fewer than that, and her position as Leader of the Party will be in danger.
Less than 48 hours to go. Oh, and by the way, Theresa and Jeremy – I won’t be voting for either of you.